Analysts found that cigarette sales (in sticks) increased by 3% on average per point in 8 months of 2024. In September 2023 — August 2024, sales also increased by 3% compared to the same period 2022-2023. In 2022-2024, cigarette sales have a pronounced seasonality with a peak in summer. The difference between high demand in July—August and the low point in January is stable at about 27-31%.
In rural areas, cigarette sales (in sticks) per point in 2022-2024 are about 2 times lower than in urban areas. The same seasonality of consumption remains with a peak in summer. In the total monetary turnover, the share of cigarette sales in rural areas has been stable at 23% over the past 3 years.
Sales of sticks for tobacco heating devices increased by 2% in January—August 2024 by 2023. And in September 2023-August 2024, sales exceeded those for 2022-2023 by 3%.
Compared to cigarettes, this market is less seasonal. During 2022-2024, the difference between peak points in the year is less than 15%, there are small spikes in demand in March and December, which is due to the positioning of tobacco heating devices as a gift.
In rural areas, the average sales of sticks for tobacco heating devices (in units) per point in 2022-2024 are 2.5 times lower than in urban areas. There are no seasonal spikes. In the total monetary turnover, the share of sales in rural areas has been stable at 11% over the past 3 years.
Sales of disposable electronic cigarettes (in units, on average per point) began to fall rapidly from the summer of 2023. In January—August 2024, the decrease was 31% compared to last year. In August 2024, sales in this segment were already 38% lower than last year. In September 2023-August 2024, sales decreased by 25% compared to the same period of 2022-2023.
In rural areas, e—cigarette consumption generally repeats the general downward trend, but the gap was slightly smaller: in January—August 2024 - by 27% by 2023. The share of rural areas in monetary turnover increased from 7% in 2022 to 8% in 2023-2024. In the segment of electronic cigarettes, there are many manufacturers from China, Russia and a huge variety of flavors — more than 2,500.
In terms of sales of all nicotine products for September 2023-August 2024, Moscow and the Moscow Region firmly hold the 1st and 2nd places in monetary terms. Krasnodar Territory took the 3rd place in cigarettes and tobacco heating devices, and St. Petersburg took the 3rd place in electronic cigarettes.
For the analysis, Evotor used data from its own EvoPeople Panel ― more than 250 million checks from 940 thousand stable customers for September 2023 — August 2024 and the same period 2022-2023 (the choice of the period took into account seasonality).
The total number of regular customers (those who bought some nicotine products at least 1 time in 10 days and at least 20 pieces in 12 months) increased from 14% to 16%. At the same time, 23% stopped buying any nicotine products in 2023-2024, and 32% started.
Among consumers of nicotine products in 2022-2024, 99% bought cigarettes. The share of buyers of sticks for tobacco heating devices increased from 74% to 77%, and e—cigarettes - from 55% to 60%.
The socio-demographic portrait of the consumer of various nicotine products is generally very similar. 53% of them are women (54% of women buy e—cigarettes). Young people (18-29 years old) account for only 26% of consumers. The main buyers — more than half — are aged 30-44 years. Among buyers of tobacco heating devices and electronic cigarettes, the share of buyers with a monthly income of more than 75 thousand rubles is slightly higher. About half (51-52%) of consumers are parents (22-24% of them with children under 3%).
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