Nikita Krichevsky, Doctor of Economics, Professor:
There is a typical liberal misconception: any problem can be solved by prohibitions. It is talked about a lot, often, but the result is always forgotten. Meanwhile, in the economy, prohibition simply generates a gray, or even a black market.
They argue about tastes
For example, some departments and a number of State Duma deputies decided that vapers feel too comfortable in Russia. That is, sorry, consumers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ESDS). They are still free to choose tastes and aromas – while those very departments and deputies, at the suggestion of lobbyists interested in killing the whole market so competitive for other categories of nicotine and tobacco products, believe that the liquid for the ESDN should contain only nicotine, distilled glycerin (with a purity of at least 94%) and propylene glycol (with a purity of at least 95%). You have probably already felt some dislike, regardless of whether you have any experience of nicotine consumption or not. Sensations do not deceive: such a cocktail can cause nothing but disappointment.
Nevertheless, since March, the government has been negotiating the next draft resolution, which provides for all this. And there is a great risk that sooner or later it will reach the desired statement. He has his own conditionally disinterested fans who need to make a career out of fighting bad habits, as well as very specific sponsors and lobbyists. After all, as we already know, if one door closes somewhere, then the second one opens immediately.
There is another plot. As a backup option, the anti-vaping fighters suggest leaving only the "traditional" flavors of ESDN liquids on the market – tobacco and menthol.
However, this is, in fact, equivalent to a complete ban on the vape category.
According to sociological research, it is taste that is one of the decisive factors in the transition from cigarettes to vaping.
But if you look at the indicators of the Russian market, these are definitely not the tastes of tobacco (about 1% of the Russian market) or menthol (just over 4% of the Russian market). And more than 60% of the market is accounted for by berry and fruit flavors, which are proposed to be banned.
The logic of the "prohibitionists" is simple: they say, if the tastes in vapes are the main reason for their consumption by teenagers, then let's ban the tastes, and then teenagers will automatically stop "soaring". But there is a big "but". In Russia, the sale of vapes to minors (as well as any tobacco and nicotine products) is already prohibited – legal market players do not sell them to teenagers. And there are no prohibitions for the illegal market.
The "second door", or where will it all go
When the ban on any flavoring ingredients, as well as salt nicotine, is adopted, the last vapes that have not been finished off by excise taxes will leave the legal market. Few people know, but in Russia they are the highest in the world. And almost all the vapes that you are currently buying are already in the gray zone, that is, illegal.
A small digression about excise taxes: the cost of legal products in distribution (not on the shelf) is 1,620 rubles, where 1,260 rubles are excise taxes and another 270 rubles are VAT. In turn, the cost of illegal products ranges around 150 rubles. Feel the difference, add the retail margin, and voila – a bagel hole in the form of excise taxes to the state budget. For example, in August of this year, the federal budget received exactly zero rubles from the sale of vaping liquids. The figures are not mine, I honestly looked at the SPINI vapers industry association.
But let's return to our topic of prohibitions, and try to imagine what will happen next.
According to VTSIOM, about 10.5 million people use vapes in our country.
By the way, this is more than a third of all those who consume nicotine in one way or another. Judging by the numerous, though mostly foreign, studies that I managed to look at, almost all of them got off cigarettes at one time. Which is generally understandable, because it is convenient, does not smell, and is less harmful, because there are no gorenje products that cause cancer. In general, for those who find it difficult to quit smoking regular cigarettes, as Dr. Myasnikov says, here are vapes for you. Anyone who wants to argue the opposite, I'm not a doctor. Go straight to him, and I'm talking about something else.
It is clear that all these millions of people will not switch to a recipe made of glycerin and propylene glycol, which will strongly resemble distilled water. Also, you should not seriously consider a scenario in which all of them at once refuse to use as such. We swam, we know.
It is clear that a significant part will continue to "hover", only they will not buy goods from legal sellers. There will also definitely be a market for flavoring additives with uncontrolled quality and composition. Unfortunately, they have already learned how to carry. And to interfere locally in the Russian Federation, in the basement with a conventional mixer, a basin and cheap illegal components bought online, too. And it will always be a competition, like Roskomnadzor and VPN manufacturers. No matter how impossible, they prohibit and block it, but if you apply a creative mind, you can always and even need to. And now everyone is actively sending links to each other, where to download, how to pay. No one has estimated it yet, but this is also a huge market for VPN services worth billions of rubles. Admit it, you have a VPN on your phone, and you are not ashamed of it. Tomorrow it will also be with vapes.
Here Forbes writes that the audience of banned social networks has decreased sixfold after being blocked. Agree, vaping/social media addiction is very similar. However, I would venture to assume that it will be somewhat different with vapes, because everything else smells very bad. So, for example, half of them will stay with black dealers, although their image will still be closer to white hackers. And everyone else will switch to alternative products. And here's the most interesting part.
Some people, a little, will return to their already familiar cigarettes. Manufacturers who are well-known to everyone and call themselves "multinational corporations", although in fact everyone also knows which country they belong to, will only be happy. Tobacco heating systems will also be very beneficial. The regulator even placed them in one category, including because there is no combustion process there, which creates a huge amount of harmful substances, including about 70 carcinogens and other poisons. Gorenje Again, if you believe the same foreign research and the British Ministry of Health.
There are about 5 million consumers of heated tobacco in Russia today, which together generate about 200 billion rubles of revenue in retail prices.
Even if not all vapers switch to sticks, in any case, for every million new consumers, manufacturers of heated tobacco will receive an additional 40 billion rubles per year. Agree, there is something to fight for.
At the same time, the state will lose from 50 to 100 billion rubles a year, which it could receive in the form of excise taxes for the sale of legal vapes at reasonable tax rates on them.
You have noticed, by the way, that for a long time they have not written or said anything bad about sticks and even cigarettes, and there is a constant negative noise about the notorious "pipes". So I noticed, so I decided to count everything.
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